← Green Dice DTR Store Championship
Water Umbra CielTier 2
at Green Dice DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 989
· median 989
· range 989–989
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1051
Q3 1352
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 37.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
